When a plan comes together

I do so love it, when a plan comes together.

The dollar swiss candlestick pattern was one of the rare examples of a clear signal with confirmation bar.

And the euro dollar acted out as predicted as well.  Nice :0)

Sell dollar swiss

I am liking the sell signal formation on daily and 4-hourly candlesticks.

I say go for it. 

Look for a sell here to target 0.9665 with the possibility of testing 0.9595.

Stoploss above 0.9865.

Have a kit kat

Time for a break to reassess.

1.0680 was as high as it got but 100+ point move was pretty decent.

Daily candlestick warns that sellers do not have a strong hand at this level.  Well at least for the moment.  I would consider buying back at any push down today and re-assess before opening a new position.

Twin peaks, worth a peek.

Market has been holding long dollar positions for awhile now; since May of last year and the fundamentals have not changed enough to say they are wrong.

There was slight consolidation after Yellen's testimony but the instinct is still to go long on the dollars.  All others are "tired" and the US seems to be the one kicking back to life.

In any case, euro has consolidated into a nice twin peak.  Well actually it has made 3 attempts at the resistance around 1.1065 and is now below the neckline.

Worth a shot going short the euro near 1.0720 with stop above 1.0780.  Let's see if 1.0470 is a strong enough magnet for this leg.

Wrong on the Yen but ...

Everything else seems to be going along as expected.

Nothing yet confirmed, so let's see how things develops.

Euro Short Cover Potential

With the greek debt payment due on April 9th and the postponement of rate hike by the Feds; it is looking likely for a euro short-cover here.

Charts suggest that market has indeed paused at 1.0460 and has established a short-term base at 1.0720 and currently trading around 1.0985.

If it can push past 1.1050, there is a chance for further short-covering up to 1.15

Let see which direction the market decides and see if we can tag a ride-along.

Dollar Yen

Looks like consolidation on the daily charts, but if I had to take a position; I'd bet on it trying another leg up on the 4-hourly pattern.

CHF behaved as expected

So the USDCHF behaved as it should today and was sold down past its target of 0.9585; which is fibonacci retracement and average daily range.

From here, it should test 0.9475.  A break should see it test lower before deciding which to go from there.

Beware of Greeks Bearing Gifts

So,it appears market is awaiting the decision by the EU, the ECB and the IMF; whether they will approve the next round of bail-out funding for Greece. 

A cash crunch and default may lead to the Greek exit from the Eurozone; setting a precedence, which the EU and ECB is fearful of.

An agreement to prevent default and keep Greece in the currency bloc, is therefore the most likely outcome. This would be euro supportive and by extension, good for the swiss franc and sterling as well.

 
 I think short dollars is still the way to go.