When a plan comes together

I do so love it, when a plan comes together.

The dollar swiss candlestick pattern was one of the rare examples of a clear signal with confirmation bar.

And the euro dollar acted out as predicted as well.  Nice :0)

Sell dollar swiss

I am liking the sell signal formation on daily and 4-hourly candlesticks.

I say go for it. 

Look for a sell here to target 0.9665 with the possibility of testing 0.9595.

Stoploss above 0.9865.

Have a kit kat

Time for a break to reassess.

1.0680 was as high as it got but 100+ point move was pretty decent.

Daily candlestick warns that sellers do not have a strong hand at this level.  Well at least for the moment.  I would consider buying back at any push down today and re-assess before opening a new position.

Twin peaks, worth a peek.

Market has been holding long dollar positions for awhile now; since May of last year and the fundamentals have not changed enough to say they are wrong.

There was slight consolidation after Yellen's testimony but the instinct is still to go long on the dollars.  All others are "tired" and the US seems to be the one kicking back to life.

In any case, euro has consolidated into a nice twin peak.  Well actually it has made 3 attempts at the resistance around 1.1065 and is now below the neckline.

Worth a shot going short the euro near 1.0720 with stop above 1.0780.  Let's see if 1.0470 is a strong enough magnet for this leg.

Wrong on the Yen but ...

Everything else seems to be going along as expected.

Nothing yet confirmed, so let's see how things develops.

Euro Short Cover Potential

With the greek debt payment due on April 9th and the postponement of rate hike by the Feds; it is looking likely for a euro short-cover here.

Charts suggest that market has indeed paused at 1.0460 and has established a short-term base at 1.0720 and currently trading around 1.0985.

If it can push past 1.1050, there is a chance for further short-covering up to 1.15

Let see which direction the market decides and see if we can tag a ride-along.

Dollar Yen

Looks like consolidation on the daily charts, but if I had to take a position; I'd bet on it trying another leg up on the 4-hourly pattern.

CHF behaved as expected

So the USDCHF behaved as it should today and was sold down past its target of 0.9585; which is fibonacci retracement and average daily range.

From here, it should test 0.9475.  A break should see it test lower before deciding which to go from there.

Beware of Greeks Bearing Gifts

So,it appears market is awaiting the decision by the EU, the ECB and the IMF; whether they will approve the next round of bail-out funding for Greece. 

A cash crunch and default may lead to the Greek exit from the Eurozone; setting a precedence, which the EU and ECB is fearful of.

An agreement to prevent default and keep Greece in the currency bloc, is therefore the most likely outcome. This would be euro supportive and by extension, good for the swiss franc and sterling as well.

 
 I think short dollars is still the way to go.
 

Short Stop

USDCHF got stopped out @ 0.9705

These short-term swings are really not my thing.

Swiss Jam Take a Chance

I think I would take a chance for a sell on the dollar swiss.

The 4-hourlies have hit a 3-point resistance around 0.9690.  For a quick turn-around, I will sell here at 0.9670 and look for a drop to 0.9620-25.  I will stop loss above 0.9690.

say cheese ...

Decided to close out my dollar swiss short here (0.9525).  It did go down to 0.9490 but I did not leave a stop-profit order to buy, so got out on the pull-back.

Looks like it's going to retrace and consolidate around here for awhile.  So let's reassess again later.

Sell Dollars?

I think the correction is still underway and will be for awhile.

Sterling looks heavy.  The Brits are antsy over the strong pound and would prefer to see lower, so correction may not be as strong for the pound.

Short-term, the dollar yen looks uncertain, but dollar swiss looks like it will continue correcting.  I would look to sell the dollar against the swiss.

I'm a seller here with stop above 0.9640 for 100 - 150pts.

Hit the pause button, not sure about rewind ...

Been told that the options markets are pricing an October or December interest rate hike, after the FOMC and Yellen.

As expected, traders are closing out long-held "long" positions on the dollars, across the board.  Markets have basically hit the pause button as long-tern sentiment is still bullish the dollars.

However, for the moment the market needs to correct and the dollar yen looks good here.

I'll look to short if the price closes below 112.28 tonight.

No Interest in Yellen ...

It took me two days to get over being upset about my positions being stopped out.

So anyway, the mystery surrounding the dollars one day plunge was Janet Yellen and her speech at the FOMC.

Yellen said that “just because we removed the word ‘patient’ doesn’t mean we’re going to be impatient.”  Boy that just takes me back to the days of Greenspan when people scratched their heads after he gave any comments or speeches.

She said that the Fed likely won’t raise rates in April, but after that raising rates is on the table. However, it’s too soon to say when beyond that rates will rise.

I am still of the view that dollar's strength will continue after the market adjusts to the aftermath of her comments. If market is already long dollars, then there will insufficient active buyers to push the price higher.  It will be a struggle higher but any sell factors will see quick moves to liquidate.

I still favour a sell on the Sterling.

Uh ... Oh ... Jungo

Been stopped out of my positions.

Still expecting stronger dollars but the sharp overnight turnaround hints at something unexpected.

Guess we have to check the news feeds and re-evaluate.

New day for a good day ...

I think the euro is ripe for a sell on the 4 hourlies.

A lower low has been established with a new lower high.  A chance for a quick sell here @ 1.0610 with stop above 1.0700 and a target at least equidistant to the last leg (about 200 pips).  So let us go with a 1.0460 target.

My STG position is still open as per earlier post.  Stop is still above 1.5150 for a 1.4820 target.

Good luck.

Win some, Lose some

Stopped out on Usd/Chf 1.0088

I guess it just wasn't to be.  May have been premature as the bigger picture doesn't yet supports the position.  Anyway, no excuses.  A loss is a loss.  A good trader does not dwell on the past.  As long as there is discipline to cut the loss and ride the profits.

 

Stg still looking good.  So, I am at least happy with that.